Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History by Peter Turchin

Author:Peter Turchin
Language: eng
Format: mobi, epub, pdf, azw3
Publisher: Beresta Books LLC
Published: 2017-03-07T23:00:00+00:00

PART THREE

A Complete Secular Cycle: from the Revolution to the Great Depression, c.1780–1930

7

Long-Term Trends, 1780–1930: a Synthesis

Goals of Part III

The empirical survey of structural-demographic dynamics in Part II suggests that between c.1780 and c.1930 the United States went through a complete secular cycle. As Chapters 3 to 6 documented, demographic, economic, social, and political variables during this period moved in a cyclic fashion. My approach so far has been to look at each variable, or group of variables, separately. However, the Structural-Demographic Theory posits that these variables are interconnected by a set of feedback loops; in other words, they are part of an integrated social system. The main goal of Part III will be to trace these feedback loops for the secular cycle of 1780–1930. Of particular interest are periods in American history when structural-demographic variables exhibit “trend-reversals”, which as we have seen in Part II, tend to happen at approximately the same time (within a decade or two) for very different kinds of variables (demographic, economic, political, and others). Explaining such trend reversals from the perspective of the Structural-Demographic Theory is, thus, a major goal of this part.

Accordingly, instead of describing the long-term dynamics of each variable, I now focus on how variables have affected each other in each historical period. Additionally, it was not always possible to obtain quantitative estimates of all variables of interest (of interest, that is, from the theoretical point of view). Thus, the second goal of Part III is to fill in the gaps with a more qualitative, narrative-based approach. Finally, social scientists have advanced a number of explanations for various turning points in American history—such as the Civil War and the New Deal, to name two of the most important milestones—and the third goal here will be to engage these theories and compare their answers with those offered by the structural-demographic model.

This chapter presents a summary of empirical trends during this secular cycle. The two trend reversals that define the cycle are discussed in a narrative manner in Chapters 8 and 10, respectively. Chapter 9 develops a quantitative model (using the conceptual framework developed in Chapter 2) that traces out the feedback loops connecting the population and elite variables.

Dynamic Interrelations Between Structural-Demographic Variables

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